Can we avoid disasters?

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 Can we avoid a disaster? Or when something with the potential to become a disaster occurs, are we destined to suffer the consequences, including human lives lost, livelihoods destroyed and harm to nature that may take a long time to recover from, if at all? The answer is surely that disasters can and should be avoided. No disaster should be a shock or “black swan” to us because we should know the hazards and threats we face (we have surely had enough practice and experience of them by now). While not all hazards are fully predictable, we can predict and redress vulnerabilities and exposures when we choose to focus on them and act in an appropriate way that values life, and we can measure quantifiable outcomes that show economic benefits as well as human and environmental ones. Good things happen when committed people and organisations collaborate to prevent a disaster from happening. 

Gareth Byatt, Professor Ilan Kelman and Ana Prados are working on an initiative to inspire action from governments, funders, businesses, the non-profit sector, and the public by compiling, verifying and sharing compelling good-news examples of potential disasters which could have happened, but did not, because action was proactively taken before it was too late.

With the aide of case studies that are funded by NASA, the team is documenting examples from around the world that show how disasters are being avoided (our findings and material are being made freely available), as well as building up a Body of Work which includes papers, interviews and publications. 

Some principal aspects of the model described on the Disasters Avoided website are as follows: 

• Having the right mindset to tackle the root causes of disasters and to focus on avoiding them is key. Without the right mindset, no amount of investment / funding (however large it may be) and action will achieve the full benefits we aspire to achieve. The right mindset includes understanding that disasters do not come from nature, they come from the choices we make to live and build in harm’s way, and from people being placed, or placing themselves, in areas where major hazards exist.
• The right mindset helps us secure the right investment / funding at the right time (including making a good case for the benefits of all investments) to provide resources to avoid disasters.
• Good governance stems from a political and economic will to protect people and the planet. It should be well-informed, accountable and enforced. Governance that is effective is crucial to managing investments and funds well, and to delivering meaningful social, environmental and economic benefits through such financial resources. 
• Good decision-making should be informed by good data (which links to securing the right investment / funding). We should collect, analyse and act on good data, using a range of solutions (including Earth observations by satellites, AI and on the ground observations).
• Good data supports meaningful inclusion of everyone, to agree how we create a society that can withstand and hopefully be in harmony with nature’s energies and forces.
• Meaningful inclusion leads us to set and manage to meaningful targets that are realistic and achievable with the resources (including funding) we have available. When appropriate, targets can be linked to global-level efforts including the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the Sustainable Development Goals (the SDGs), climate change mitigation and adaptation, the New Urban Agenda, and the Humanitarian Agenda.